Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- 24h change
- ▼ 0.1
- Volume
- $40.4M
- 24h volume
- $22K
- Liquidity
- $475K
- Best bid
- 3.7¢
- Best ask
- 3.8¢
- Spread
- 0.1¢
- Last trade
- 3.7¢
- Quote age
- Updating live
Chart combines Polymarket's published price history with live book midpoints and may be incomplete or inconsistent. Not a record of executed trades.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.