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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%Yes No
October 3111%Yes No
September 305%Yes No
September 152%Yes No

$11.8M Vol.

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Harry Kane65%Yes No
Lamine Yamal15%Yes No
Kylian Mbappé9%Yes No
Rodri7%Yes No

$31.5M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

chance

Yes No

$6.8M Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3138%Yes No
October 3124%Yes No
September 3014%Yes No
August 312%Yes No

$2.7M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3125%Yes No
October 3114%Yes No
August 311%Yes No

$6.3M Vol.

MLB: 2026 American League Champion

New York Yankees23%Yes No
Tampa Bay Rays19%Yes No
Boston Red Sox14%Yes No
Chicago White Sox12%Yes No

$4.3M Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

October 3159%Yes No
September 3037%Yes No
September 2120%Yes No
September 1412%Yes No

$1.3M Vol.

Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner

Justin Herbert14%Yes No
Josh Allen12%Yes No
Lamar Jackson11%Yes No
Drake Maye11%Yes No

$584K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

chance

Yes No

$40.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

31%

chance

Yes No

$10.0M Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

chance

Yes No

$12.8M Vol.

Will Russia capture Shevchenko by...?

chance

Yes No

$53K Vol.

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

December 3153%Yes No
October 3114%Yes No
September 3011%Yes No
August 310%Yes No

$47K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Netanyahu - Israel PM43%Yes No
None before 202732%Yes No
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President6%Yes No
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President4%Yes No

$240K Vol.

WNBA: 2026 Champion

Minnesota Lynx47%Yes No
Indiana Fever13%Yes No
Las Vegas Aces12%Yes No
Golden State Valkyries11%Yes No

$896K Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

December 316%Yes No
September 301%Yes No
August 310%Yes No

$29.2M Vol.

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

September 3047%Yes No
September 1519%Yes No

$38K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?

79%

chance

Yes No

$11K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro84%Yes No
Delcy Rodríguez10%Yes No
María Corina Machado2%Yes No
No Head of State1%Yes No

$95.9M Vol.

MLB: 2026 NL MVP

Pete Crow-Armstrong83%Yes No
Shohei Ohtani18%Yes No
Jacob Misiorowski0%Yes No
Juan Soto0%Yes No

$1.3M Vol.

MLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner

Lionel Messi50%Yes No
Petar Musa21%Yes No
Sam Surridge5%Yes No
Evander5%Yes No

$902K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

No meeting by December 3152%Yes No
China41%Yes No
Russia4%Yes No
Belarus1%Yes No

$776K Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya8%Yes No
Volodymyr Zelenskyy5%Yes No
UNRWA4%Yes No
Pope Leo XIV3%Yes No

$23.6M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

12%

chance

Yes No

$265K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

December 3145%Yes No
October 3112%Yes No
September 305%Yes No
August 310%Yes No

$1.6M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

September 3011%Yes No
September 155%Yes No
August 310%Yes No

$903K Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

14%

chance

Yes No

$7.4M Vol.

Houthis target Saudi Arabia by...?

September 1552%Yes No
August 3137%Yes No

$26K Vol.

Israel military action against Syria by...?

September 3024%Yes No
September 1512%Yes No
August 315%Yes No

$35K Vol.

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

chance

Yes No

$628K Vol.

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Kuwait17%Yes No
Qatar14%Yes No
Syria11%Yes No
Egypt10%Yes No

$51K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

chance

Yes No

$5.4M Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?

17%

chance

Yes No

$4.7K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?

30+2%Yes No
40+1%Yes No
50+0%Yes No
60+0%Yes No

$164K Vol.

The Game Awards: Best Game Direction

Saros9%Yes No
Resident Evil Requiem7%Yes No
Gears of War: E-Day4%Yes No
Marvel's Wolverine4%Yes No

$18K Vol.

Will Iran target a Arab country on...?

August 314%Yes No
August 302%Yes No
August 281%Yes No
August 271%Yes No

$701K Vol.

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?

December 3193%Yes No
September 3067%Yes No

$165K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?

<258%Yes No
50-742%Yes No
100+1%Yes No

$13K Vol.

MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner

Pete Crow-Armstrong66%Yes No
Shohei Ohtani21%Yes No
Kyle Schwarber7%Yes No
Juan Soto1%Yes No

$160K Vol.

The Game Awards: Best Audio Design

Grand Theft Auto VI32%Yes No
Forza Horizon 615%Yes No
Control Resonant14%Yes No
Pragmata13%Yes No

$15K Vol.

WNBA: 2026 MVP

A'ja Wilson91%Yes No
Olivia Miles6%Yes No
Caitlin Clark4%Yes No
Alyssa Thomas1%Yes No

$209K Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Dopropillia86%Yes No
Druzkhivka48%Yes No
Kramatorsk28%Yes No
Sloviansk25%Yes No

$939K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

chance

Yes No

$3.3M Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?

20-3961%Yes No
40-5917%Yes No
<2016%Yes No
60-797%Yes No

$14K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

December 313%Yes No
August 310%Yes No

$6.3M Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?

190-20943%Yes No
170-18933%Yes No
230+17%Yes No
210-2298%Yes No

$24K Vol.

Will Russia enter Hannivka by...?

December 3182%Yes No
September 3062%Yes No
August 317%Yes No

$25K Vol.

MLB: Team to make postseason

Boston Red Sox98%Yes No
Chicago Cubs97%Yes No
Philadelphia Phillies94%Yes No
Chicago White Sox91%Yes No

$192K Vol.

The Game Awards: Best Independent Game

Mina the Hollower32%Yes No
Big Walk28%Yes No
Mewgenics24%Yes No
Mixtape5%Yes No

$35K Vol.

MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner

Cam Schlittler69%Yes No
Dylan Cease30%Yes No
Sonny Gray1%Yes No
Logan Gilbert1%Yes No

$1.3M Vol.

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

chance

Yes No

$12K Vol.

Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?

December 319%Yes No
September 302%Yes No

$115K Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

chance

Yes No

$1.3M Vol.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

December 316%Yes No
October 314%Yes No
August 310%Yes No

$113K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

chance

Yes No

$200K Vol.

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?

December 3185%Yes No
October 3175%Yes No
September 3048%Yes No
September 1526%Yes No

$317K Vol.

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202711%Yes No
December 31, 20264%Yes No

$29K Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

chance

Yes No

$1.8M Vol.

Will any country leave NATO by...?

chance

Yes No

$1.4M Vol.

WNBA: Blocks Per Game Leader

A'ja Wilson94%Yes No
Breanna Stewart2%Yes No
Rickea Jackson1%Yes No
Emily Engstler0%Yes No

$17K Vol.

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