Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
- 24h change
- ▼ 0.4
- Volume
- $392K
- 24h volume
- $333
- Liquidity
- $18K
- Best bid
- 1.4¢
- Best ask
- 3¢
- Spread
- 1.6¢
- Last trade
- 1.3¢
- Quote age
- Updating live
Chart combines Polymarket's published price history with live book midpoints and may be incomplete or inconsistent. Not a record of executed trades.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.